Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Bloc Advertising Makes Election Inevitable

With the release of BQ ads accusing the Conservatives and Liberals of having the same vision for Quebec, and party insiders opining that we will soon be off to the hustings, an election seems to be a sure thing. The only way out of an election would be for Layton to support the government on confidence votes, something he will not do because of Harper's rejection of such a scheme.

Technically, of course, Layton does not need Harper's approval to vote with him. However, due to the PM's rejection of a deal between the two parties, one gets the impression that the PM will not be very pliable at this stage. And it would only be with a pliable PM that Layton would benefit from supporting the government.

Layton cannot be seen to support Conservative policy that he has not amended in some form. But, in all likelihood, the Conservatives will not let him get close to amending confidence legislation.

So, the only two scenarios left to Layton are supporting the government without providing amendments to policy, or face the polls and hope for the best. Although NDP standing in the polls is not good, worse than their share of the vote last election, Layton cannot afford to be seen as selling out to the Conservatives. Major chunks of his support would switch their vote to the Liberals in protest, maybe for years to come.

Jack Layton has the choice that will determine whether an election occurs this fall, but in essence it has already been made for him.
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