Bloc Advertising Makes Election Inevitable

With the release of BQ ads accusing the Conservatives and Liberals of having the same vision for Quebec, and party insiders opining that we will soon be off to the hustings, an election seems to be a sure thing. The only way out of an election would be for Layton to support the government on confidence votes, something he will not do because of Harper's rejection of such a scheme.

Technically, of course, Layton does not need Harper's approval to vote with him. However, due to the PM's rejection of a deal between the two parties, one gets the impression that the PM will not be very pliable at this stage. And it would only be with a pliable PM that Layton would benefit from supporting the government.

Layton cannot be seen to support Conservative policy that he has not amended in some form. But, in all likelihood, the Conservatives will not let him get close to amending confidence legislation.

So, the only two scenarios left to Layton are supporting the government without providing amendments to policy, or face the polls and hope for the best. Although NDP standing in the polls is not good, worse than their share of the vote last election, Layton cannot afford to be seen as selling out to the Conservatives. Major chunks of his support would switch their vote to the Liberals in protest, maybe for years to come.

Jack Layton has the choice that will determine whether an election occurs this fall, but in essence it has already been made for him.

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Will the Bloc Quebecois regret opposing the Conservatives?

The only reason that Michael Ignatieff can contemplate toppling the government is the prompt opposition that the two other opposition parties offered to Harper's economic update. Now that Ignatieff seems to be considering his options very carefully, will the Bloc Quebecois regret their dismissal that took an amazingly short amount of time of a 234 page document?

The reason I am wondering is that the only party that comes close at this moment to the Bloc is the Liberal party. In the latest EKOS poll, the Bloc leads with 36.5% of support, with the Liberals close behind at 33.6%. That is a margin that could be bridged by the Liberals in the middle of a campaign. Quebecers keen to see Harper get the boot may switch vote.

Even if voters in Quebec don't switch, an election at this time would solidify the massive gains the Liberals have made in the province since the federal election. These are like Chretien era numbers, they're that good. And the Bloc has no interest in having a Liberal party that can rival them.

So, although it may seem that Ignatieff has a choice to make now, in a way so did Duceppe. And it looks like he believes an election would be beneficial for him. Or else he's bluffing and hoping Ignatieff doesn't go along with it. All very interesting considerations.

All in all however, maybe Gilles is co-operating because otherwise, there will be even more aging baby boomers keen to receive pensions and benefits from Ottawa, rather than engage in dreams of sovereignty. Maybe he will have a better chance this time than next.

I am looking forward to seeing how the BQ will react if Ignatieff moves for an election. It could be interesting, possibly.

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