Thursday, July 16, 2009

EKOS poll reveals 2% Conservative advantage

An EKOS poll released today reveals a story many of us do not want to hear: the Conservatives are back, ahead by 2% with 34.1% and the Liberals at 32.4%. Although this can be covered by the margin of error, it is of some concern seeing as the blame is entirely on Liberal shoulders.

Can anyone think of anything substantial and positive that the Conservatives have done since Ignatieff's potential election? All I can come up with is the settlement they produced, the commission to review EI, with 3 Liberals and 3 Conservatives. Other than that, it has been mostly scandals. Not to mention that before the election scare, they weren't doing much better.

So, it seems to me that our leader, Ignatieff, is to blame for fomenting an election scare, and subsequently revealing it was just that. The public is reacting predictably to what it perceives as politicians playing games, instead of performing the duties for which they were sent to the capital.

What's more, these results are probably down because Ignatieff is losing his new leader aura, an aura of something new and fresh. Although every leader loses this after a while, it was all the more confirmed by what is seen as waffling.

The Liberals do not have the Conservatives to blame for these numbers. However, it is too harsh to say that the Liberals made wrong decisions. Ignatieff made a principled decision of compromise, and attempts at co-operation. He is to be admired for that.
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  1. Incumbants always gain in the polls during the summer. They continue to make political news while the opposition has no easy forum to counter them. The fact that there is only a 2 point dificit is actually fairly good news for us. This is a much smaller drop than one would typically expect for an Oppositon party in the summer.
    The real numbers to worry about will come in mid to late August.

  2. Look on the bright side of this poll. Stephane Dion and the Liberals were out polling Stephen Harper in the Conservatives right before the 2008 election.

  3. The numbers aren't that bad...the next poll is going to be interesting. Give the electorate time to adjust to all the Tory scandals: Gay pride funding, Harper at the G8, wafergate. And then of course the biggy, the projections of deficits as far as the eye can see.

    I'm not expecting anything dramatic, it is summer after all. But I'll be suprised if the Conservative numbers don't slide a bit.


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