We've Avoided an Election, For the Next Week or So

With both the NDP and the Bloc voting with the government on Friday, implementing among other things the home renovation tax credit, the country has staved off an election for now. Nevertheless, this will not last long.

For the Bloc, it would have been stupidity itself to oppose one of the few popular measures taken by this government. And they have indicated that they would likely vote against the no-confidence motion the Liberals will inevitably table. Gilles Duceppe said "All in all, if we're asked if we have confidence in [this] government, the answer is no." Of course, that does not technically preclude abstention or any other number of tricks, but it would seem that the Bloc is still readying itself for an election.

More importantly though, although Jack Layton will be propping up the government in the near future, this situation cannot last forever for three reasons. First, the general reason of the acrimony of the conflict between the Conservatives and the NDP.

Specifically, despite Harper having found a carrot to dangle in front of Layton this time, he will have to keep doing so if Jack Layton is to support him. Layton cannot ever support classic Tory policy, lest his base abandon him for the Liberals or Greens. Seeing as this Prime Minister is highly partisan, I doubt he will be able to keep conceiving of flavours of the month for Layton's pleasure. After all, if we go to the polls, the NDP will suffer immeasurably more, as of now, than the Conservatives.

The second consideration is that Layton cannot afford to support the government for an extended period of time. If Stephane Dion taught us one thing, it's that abstention and/or supporting the government for too long will exact heavy tolls on your results at the polls. The poll numbers may be bad now, but what would they be if Layton were to support the Conservatives through this entire session, on confidence votes.

Not to say we won't have a short period of time in which the NDP will support the government. We will, if only to give the NDP time to fundraise in preparation for a campaign, and as well to receive some support for saving the nation from an election and making parliament work.

Then Layton will pull the plug, unless Duceppe somehow steps in.

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Bloc Advertising Makes Election Inevitable

With the release of BQ ads accusing the Conservatives and Liberals of having the same vision for Quebec, and party insiders opining that we will soon be off to the hustings, an election seems to be a sure thing. The only way out of an election would be for Layton to support the government on confidence votes, something he will not do because of Harper's rejection of such a scheme.

Technically, of course, Layton does not need Harper's approval to vote with him. However, due to the PM's rejection of a deal between the two parties, one gets the impression that the PM will not be very pliable at this stage. And it would only be with a pliable PM that Layton would benefit from supporting the government.

Layton cannot be seen to support Conservative policy that he has not amended in some form. But, in all likelihood, the Conservatives will not let him get close to amending confidence legislation.

So, the only two scenarios left to Layton are supporting the government without providing amendments to policy, or face the polls and hope for the best. Although NDP standing in the polls is not good, worse than their share of the vote last election, Layton cannot afford to be seen as selling out to the Conservatives. Major chunks of his support would switch their vote to the Liberals in protest, maybe for years to come.

Jack Layton has the choice that will determine whether an election occurs this fall, but in essence it has already been made for him.

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The Coalition Bogeyman

One of the obstacles that Ignatieff will face in the next election, whenever it is, is Stephen Harper's commitment to a coalition that everyone else has abandoned. This strategy is obviously aimed at producing a fear of this bogeyman in the electorate, as Harper knows that in December last year the greatest proportion of the country was resolutely against any coalition.

Here are some better known pundits talking about this issue:



If such a coalition bogeyman is brought to life, one hopes that Ignatieff has decided whether or not he does support a coalition. It could make all the difference.

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What Ignatieff's Campaign Narrative Should Be

Since it would seem that an election is forthcoming, Ignatieff is probably developing a narrative for the upcoming campaign. Since Ignatieff will be seen as triggering the election, it is imperative it be convincing, compelling, and inspiring. In other words, the opposite of Tory small ideas, a narrative that will draw out the forlorn Canadian voter, especially those that did not vote in the last election, as well as the youth.

With the economy seeming to recover, with a job gain of 27000 in August, some may think that Ignatieff's best opportunity at such a narrative has disappeared, that Ignatieff capitalized too late on this window of opportunity.

This is not the case. If the economy is recovering, Ignatieff can stress all the more the need to supervise this recovery, to ensure that we emerge from this recession with a stronger economy, a fairer economy and a greener economy.

Ignatieff can also point out that the Tories will be perfectly willing to let the economy follow the same path it did prior to this downturn, once the economy has fully recovered. Furthermore, he can attack the Conservatives with the OECD's recent conclusion that Canada will be the Western industrialized country that will have the slowest and longest recovery.:




Perfect material for an attack ad.

If Ignatieff took on Dion's motto in the last election of a "Richer, Fairer and Greener Canada" and changed it to be "A Stronger, Fairer, and Greener Economy", I believe it would inspire people. People really do care about an issue this time around, and it's the economy. If the campaign is based around this portfolio and the Conservatives failure at managing it, people will listen. All sorts of people that didn't vote last time. The young for example, who care about a green economy quite a lot.

Essentially, this strategy entails going where the Conservatives cannot go, and attacking them for they have gone, on the issue that people care most about. If you make them feel you will improve the economy, improve their lives and the environment, they'll vote you in. What's more, this time around you have the money to tell them about it.

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Is John Baird out to Lunch?

Election speculation went up a notch today when Ignatieff announced that he was contemplating a fall election based on principle. Previously, John "The Pitbull" Baird had maintained that if an election were called, all the programs for the economy undertaken by the Conservatives would cease to operate. Which begs the question: How?

I guess that John Baird would argue that no new policy decisions can be taken, or old policy altered. However, Baird is playing to the fears and his perceived stupidity of the public. If Baird's comments were taken at face value, you would think that the whole government apparatus grinds to a halt, simply because an election is on. The government structure keeps operating on standby during an election, so by no means would all the Conservatives programs be canceled.

This argument masks the fact that, in fact, there may be few programs that are actually operating properly in the first place. As Ignatieff and other Liberal MPs have pointed out, numerous programs that were announced in the budget have not actually been implemented yet. So on that count as well Baird's assertion is shaky.

Finally, who supported the budget, with modifications that it brought to bear on the government? That's right, the Liberals, who would most likely be the next government if the Conservatives lost. So even if an election were called, and the Conservatives lost, their policies would live on, except that with a Liberal government, they'd be expanded on, and implemented faster, much faster.

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Canadians don't like elections: force them to have elections

Amid all the ado surrounding the potential election last week, one phrase kept being repeated: Canadians do not want a summer election. Come to think of it, Canadians never like elections. Fall is a bad time because the school year has just started, winter is bad because it's Christmas, spring is bad because who wants to think of politics when everything else is in bloom, and in summer it's quite difficult to vote when you'd rather hang around the barbecue.

It would seem that Canadians never want an election. This is paralyzing politics in this country as the reason constantly given for not going to the polls is that no one wants an election. Ignatieff's sad capitulation to Harper over EI and other issues was due to advice that centered around Canadians do not want election.

Now, this of particular concern to Liberals as whenever voter turnout is low, there is a greater probability of a Conservative majority. However, the facts remain that each party uses it, the Conservatives even to their advantage. In fact, this is integral to their attacks on the Liberal party.

So the solution is pretty clear. To avoid all this strategic pandering to Canadians' adversity to elections, we can eliminate that adversity, or rather, circumnavigate it. In other words, force Canadians to vote, by enacting such a law. Not voting would become an offence.

This is a system that is used in in other regions worldwide, to quite significant success. In such systems, voter participation, such as in Australia, exceeds 90%.

Maybe, if we had had this reform, we would have less strategic fear mongering in Parliament. And Ignatieff would have forced an election.

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A great opportunity slips through Michael's fingers

Michael Ignatieff had a great opportunity this week to bring down the government, and to ensure, among other things, that real, effective, and crucial change would occur in relation to Employment Insurance. Instead, we have been offered a panel to study EI reform, consisting of 3 Liberals and 3 Conservatives. It is permissible to believe that nothing coming within the realm of nationwide EI standards will be achieved.

So let's bemoan our loss. Because a loss it is. Ignatieff and the Liberals were leading in the polls by a 5% margin, and were riding a wave of Conservative flub ups. What with a ballooning deficit just waiting to spirit the Conservatives out of office, there was little doubt of the issue of the potential election: a Liberal minority government.

And, instead of taking this opportunity, Ignatieff has created in co-operation with Harper, a panel that will effect some changes, but not what we need. If Ignatieff had taken his chance, there would be no doubt as to the change. Now, we are forced to wait and see what will be offered up to us.

The only consoling hope is that maybe, just maybe, Ignatieff has something up his sleeve. That he is using this time over the summer to strengthen his party's campaign-readiness, and so to increase the margin of victory in an election I want to see in the fall.

Cling to that hope. It's the best we can hope for in this missed opportunity.

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They said Harper was smart... Looks like he thinks we're stupid

Which of course may reveal he's smart, at least in reference to some in the population. I'm not saying they're stupid per se, but they don't pay attention in politics and are easily fooled.

Anyway, why is this so? Looking at Harper's offer to the Liberals, only two options are clear: 1. he thinks we are easily hoodwinked. 2. He has lost his strategic touch, which may have never been there as much as the media said, but that's for future posts.

These conclusions are inevitable as Harper's offer to Ignatieff consists of as much real action as his policy on the environment. Offering to discuss the issues that Ignatieff has raised, after the vote, is ludicrous. This would have absolutely no effect in calming the Opposition parties, and rightly so.

Discussion of components of a stimulus package is not, reasonably, taken after a no-confidence vote. For, in this way, Harper can say to Ignatieff, trust me, we'll duke it out later, while he manages to stay on for another three months. Furthermore, during these three months of recess, Ignatieff has no power to change any of Harper's actions.

For all these reasons, Ignatieff has made the right move. It is necessary to talk about the four issues Ignatieff raised, if not more, before the vote so that the Liberals can vote in conjunction with our principles and views for the country.

So, Harper clearly thinks the general public cannot see this. Yet more evidence of a snobbish attitude. And he said that "Count" Ignatieff was aristocratic.

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Will the Bloc Quebecois regret opposing the Conservatives?

The only reason that Michael Ignatieff can contemplate toppling the government is the prompt opposition that the two other opposition parties offered to Harper's economic update. Now that Ignatieff seems to be considering his options very carefully, will the Bloc Quebecois regret their dismissal that took an amazingly short amount of time of a 234 page document?

The reason I am wondering is that the only party that comes close at this moment to the Bloc is the Liberal party. In the latest EKOS poll, the Bloc leads with 36.5% of support, with the Liberals close behind at 33.6%. That is a margin that could be bridged by the Liberals in the middle of a campaign. Quebecers keen to see Harper get the boot may switch vote.

Even if voters in Quebec don't switch, an election at this time would solidify the massive gains the Liberals have made in the province since the federal election. These are like Chretien era numbers, they're that good. And the Bloc has no interest in having a Liberal party that can rival them.

So, although it may seem that Ignatieff has a choice to make now, in a way so did Duceppe. And it looks like he believes an election would be beneficial for him. Or else he's bluffing and hoping Ignatieff doesn't go along with it. All very interesting considerations.

All in all however, maybe Gilles is co-operating because otherwise, there will be even more aging baby boomers keen to receive pensions and benefits from Ottawa, rather than engage in dreams of sovereignty. Maybe he will have a better chance this time than next.

I am looking forward to seeing how the BQ will react if Ignatieff moves for an election. It could be interesting, possibly.

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